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We constantly have to make decisions. And as a project manager, making decisions is part of the daily routine.
You need to decide whether to include a feature in the sprint. But you don’t know whether Business will change its priorities tomorrow.
You need to set a date. But the technical team tells you that ‘it depends on a lot of things.’
You need to assign someone to a critical project. But you don’t know if he’ll be up to the task in a completely new environment.
Where clarity is a luxury that no longer exists, and ambiguity is our daily reality.
And here’s the problem: it’s not that we don’t have enough information. The thing is, we’re never going to have it.
Whilst we wait for ‘a bit more clarity’, the project grinds to a halt, opportunities slip away, and another, more agile project manager has already made up their mind.
An Oracle study of 14,000 leaders worldwide revealed something interesting: 72% admit that the sheer volume of data and their lack of confidence in it has left them paralysed. They can’t make any decisions.
It’s not that they make bad decisions. The thing is, they simply DON’T make decisions (although not deciding is, in itself, a decision…)
The cost? Projects at a standstill, waiting for ‘more information’; missed opportunities because someone else has already made a decision; frustrated teams waiting for guidance; stakeholders losing confidence…
The irony is that by the time you’re 100% certain, the situation has already changed and the information you were waiting for… is no longer useful.
Accept this uncomfortable truth: there is no such thing as a perfectly informed decision in project management. Why? Firstly, the context changes faster than your ability to gather data.
Secondly, because the “missing” information almost always concerns the future. And the future is unpredictable.
Thirdly, because some information simply does not exist yet.
To wait for absolute certainty is to wait forever.
Colin Powell (former US Secretary of State) had to make decisions with global implications. Literally, life-or-death decisions. His rule was simple: ‘Whenever you have to make a difficult decision, you should have no less than 40% and no more than 70% of the information you need.’
Let’s break it down:
Jeff Bezos says exactly the same thing: “Most decisions should be made with around 70% of the information you would like to have. If you’re waiting for 90%, you’re probably already too slow.“
Can you spot the pattern?
The world’s most effective leaders do not wait for certainty. They make decisions based on sufficient information and speed.
Let’s look at some specific points. How to make decisions when you don’t have all the facts:
There are Type 1 decisions, which are irreversible or very difficult to reverse. It’s a costly mistake if you get it wrong. For example: overhauling the entire technology stack, firing the tech lead, or switching critical vendors. These need more information; they’re about 70% complete.
Then there are Type 2 decisions, which are reversible. You can easily undo them, and the cost of making a mistake is low. For example: trying out a new tool, reorganising the backlog, changing the structure of a sprint. These require less information; it could be 50% or less.
Before you decide, ask yourself: ‘Can I easily undo this?’
If the answer is yes, make a quick decision and fine-tune it later. If not, give yourself a bit more time.
Perfectionism kills projects.
Instead of trying to find the perfect decision, ask yourself: ‘What decision is good enough to allow us to move forward?’
Imagine you have to choose a CRM vendor.
Perfectionist mode: you’re going to compare three vendors across 15 different criteria, run two-month POCs, and consult with 10 different stakeholders. Result: Four months later, one of the suppliers is no longer available and the others have raised their prices.
The ‘good enough’ approach: you define your three key criteria (price, technical capability, references). You’ll be assessed in two weeks’ time. You decide which one turns 3. Move on.
Is it the perfect choice? Probably not. Is it good enough to move forward? Absolutely.
Indecision is also a decision. You’re choosing not to choose.
Try this: when you realise you need to make a decision, say out loud (or write down): ‘I’m going to decide this on day X, based on the information I have at that time.’
And deliver. Why does it work? It removes the temptation to ‘wait just a little longer’, forces you to search for information efficiently (rather than endlessly), and lets your team know that things are about to happen.
This is a mental exercise that takes five minutes and could save your life.
Before making any decisions, imagine we’re six months into the future and your decision turned out to be a complete disaster. An epic failure. What went wrong?
Write down the three most likely reasons why it failed.
Now ask yourself: is there anything here that I can sort out or address now, before making a decision?
If there’s anything you can do to mitigate the risk, do it before you commit. If there’s nothing you can do about it, you accept the risk and go ahead anyway.
Making a quick decision doesn’t mean deciding and turning a blind eye.
Here’s how it works: you make a decision based on the 70% of information you have, define early validation metrics, actively monitor those metrics, and make quick adjustments if the data shows you were wrong.
The key is to make decisions quickly (without rushing in headlong) and to adapt quickly. That’s true agility.
Colin Powell said something else worth mentioning: “In my experience, you gather as much information as you can, and then you listen to your intuition – your informed instinct. Sometimes what my analytical mind tells me isn’t what I end up doing.“
Intuition isn’t about guessing or tossing a coin. Our subconscious picks up far more information than we realise.
If you already have 40–70% of the information and have been working in project management for years, that ‘gut feeling’ you have is probably picking up on patterns that your brain has already processed but which your conscious mind hasn’t yet put into words.
Your brain is making connections based on past experience, faster than you can put it into words. Don’t ignore that. But don’t base your decision on that alone.
The key lies in: data plus experience plus intuition. That helps you make sound decisions when you don’t have the full picture.
While you wait for ‘a bit more clarity’: Your team is at a standstill, not knowing what to do. Your stakeholders are losing confidence in you. The competition has already made its decision and is moving forward. The situation has changed (and that “complete” information you were expecting is no longer useful). You’re wearing yourself out with the stress of indecision.
The harsh truth is that a project based on an imperfect decision that is actually carried out is better than a perfect project that never gets off the ground.
By 2026, traditional planning will no longer work as it used to. Assumptions tend to become outdated more quickly. Long-term certainty gave way to ongoing decisions over shorter timeframes.
The best project managers of 2026 are not the ones with the most information. They are the ones who make the best decisions when faced with incomplete information. Make your decision based on sufficient information. Move quickly. Adjust intelligently.
How much longer are you going to keep waiting for ‘a bit more clarity’?
Would you like to develop this and other essential skills for project managers?
In the Power Skills for Project Managers course, we cover exactly these topics: decision-making in ambiguous situations, stress management, influencing without authority, and more.
Because making quick and sound decisions isn’t a talent. It’s a skill that can be learnt.
So, have you decided yet that you want to take that step with us?
Claudia Patricia Salas
